As only parties with a large number of seats in the House of
Representatives (DPR) can nominate (mengajukan) a candidate for the 2014 presidential
election, the Jakarta-based pollster (pengumpulan suare) Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI)
predicted that there would only be three contenders (lawan/pesaing) running in the
election next July.
LSI predicted that other than Golkar and the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which would both likely
hold (memegang)enough seats in the House to run a presidential candidate, a
coalition of political parties under the so-called “central axis” would
combine (kombinasi)seats to field a contender.
In accordance with Law No.
42/2008 on the presidential election, only a political party or a
coalition that garners 20 percent of legislative seats or 25 percent of
the popular vote in the April 2014 legislative election is eligible to
contest the presidential election.
The latest survey from LSI
found that if the legislative election were to take place (dilaksanakan)today, Golkar
would secure 20.4 percent of the popular vote and PDI-P 18.7 percent.
The
survey, which was conducted from Sept. 12 to Oct. 5 also found that the
ruling Democratic Party would garner only 9.8 percent of the vote. With
such a poor showing, the Democratic Party would cease to be a major
political party and would be expected to join the central axis.
Agreeing on a candidate to nominate, however, would likely be a struggle for the central axis.
“Although
the Democratic Party will collaborate with the central axis parties,
it’s unlikely it will endorse its own [presidential] candidate because
unlike other parties in the group, the party has no strong and
influential figure to contest the election,” LSI researcher Ardian Sopa
said on Sunday.
In addition to the Democratic Party, the central
axis group is expected to comprise the nationalist parties — including
the Great Indonesian Movement (Gerindra) Party, the People’s Conscience
Party (Hanura), the National Democratic Party (NasDem) and the
Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) — and the Islamic-based
parties, including the National Mandate Party (PAN), the National
Awakening Party (PKB), the United Development Party (PPP), the
Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB).
Golkar has officially nominated its chairman Aburizal Bakrie as its presidential candidate.
The PDI-P has yet to announce whether it would nominate popular Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
The
PDI-P is expected to name its presidential candidate early next year.
Ardian of the LSI said that should the PDI-P fail to nominate Jokowi as
its presidential candidate, it is likely that central axis would
nominate him and pair him with the most popular candidate from the
Islamic-based parties.
According to the LSI survey, PAN chairman
and Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa appeared to be the most
favored vice presidential candidate among leaders from the Islamic-based
parties. Hatta would secure 31.3 percent of the vote if the election
were held today.
The survey also found that PBB senior politician
Yusril Ihza Mahendra would come in second with 15.2 percent of votes,
followed by PKB chairman Muhaimin Iskandar with 11.8 percent and PPP
chairman Suryadharma Ali with 10.7 percent of the vote.
“A pair
of candidates from the nationalist parties and the Islamic-based ones
will be the best scheme to overcome the strength of Golkar and PDI-P in
the upcoming presidential election,” Ardian said.
source : Margareth S. Aritonang,
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | National | Mon, November 04 2013, 3:59 PM
